Economic shocks and their impact on Egypt's agricultural sector for 2004-2023

Abstract

The study aims to measure the impact of macro-shocks on the Egyptian economy in general and on the agricultural sector in particular by measuring the impact of some macro-variables on GDP and then agricultural output through the use of two-stage micro-squares the results of the long-term relationship assessment show that all economic variables covered by this research have moral implications for GDP through the mechanism of joint integration, The most influential of these variables is when the results of the response pulse analysis show that these variables appear clearly in their longitudes and when there is a shock, GDP will be significantly affected primarily by the first position of oil prices, and then inflation rates come (second place), while any shock to other variables may not be significantly affected by GDP and the reason for the rise is the value of the standard error as it contains an impact of uncertain forecasting of domestic production in past years, The study recommends attention to international economic transformations affecting the agricultural sector through appropriate agricultural policies and the use of scientific and technical achievements for the domestic use of modern agricultural technologies, as well as their transfer and localization