Econometric and economic analysis of the factors affecting the flow of Iraqi agricultural imports for the period (2004-2022) using the gravity model

Abstract

The research aims to identify and estimate the most important factors affecting Iraqi agricultural imports from the most important trading partners of Iraq using the gravity model. The time period (2004-2022) was taken with a group of fixed trading partners during this period, collected in the form of (Panel Data) and the research sample amounted to (152).The value of agricultural imports from Iraq's trading partners was taken as a dependent variable, while the independent variables are (the variable of the value of the gross domestic product of Iraq and trading partners, the variable of the geographical distance between the capital of Iraq and the capital of the trading partners, the variable of the population of Iraq and trading partners, the variable of the added value of agricultural production of Iraq and trading partners, the variable of the common borders between Iraq and trading partners, and the variable of the common language between Iraq and trading partners). The estimation was done using the three (Panel Data) estimation methods, and it was found that economic variables such as the gross domestic product reflect the high economic and productive capacity that enables importing and exporting countries alike to improve their ability to enhance the ability to export and import agricultural goods, which leads to an increase in the volume of Iraqi agricultural imports from trading partners. Geographical factors such as the distance between Iraq and its trading partners reflect the negative impact on the volume of agricultural imports between Iraq and its trading partners. The research recommended improving the transportation infrastructure within Iraq and between trading partners by developing ports and expanding the capacity of shipping, especially with countries such as the UAE and improving the road network to facilitate the movement of agricultural goods from the markets of neighboring countries such as (Turkey, Iran, Syria and Jordan).